In this edition of Market Bites, we analyse the reasons for Rubber’s rapid gain of 6.3% last Thursday, 25 February 2021.
Key factors for the surge in prices
Rubber prices rose on Thursday following market talk that Chinese funds were buying Shanghai Rubber Futures. As Shanghai Rubber Futures rose sharply, some trading spilled over to TOCOM and SICOM Rubber Futures causing prices to go into technically overbought levels. SICOM TSR20 rubber for May Delivery on Singapore Exchange (SGX) rose 6.3% to a high of $193.5/kg last Thursday before closing at $188.3. The market could not sustain the rapid appreciation of prices and closing was at the low daily range.
What is likely to happen next?
With the recovery of auto sales globally and continuing demand of latex used in surgical gloves, rubber’s demand is expected to grow sustainably. Some of the largest producers of natural rubber in Thailand are also facing issues with bank loans. This may restrict supply of natural rubber and latex from the top producers, Thailand. Additionally, the wintering season in Thailand which starts around early March is a low seasonal production period for rubber tapping. Thus, with the dip in production, demand is expected to eclipse supply.
Technical analysis for SICOM TSR20 Rubber Futures
Although the natural rubber uptrend is fundamentally intact, prices are overbought on charts and technical indicators are pointing to a pullback. Producer and technical selling may cause the market to drop to support at $1.67/kg followed by $1.56 for the SICOM TSR20 May contract. Immediate resistance lies at Thursday’s high of $1.935/kg.
Capture opportunities in Rubber
Phillip Futures offers the following Rubber products:
Phillip Nova
– INE TSR 20 Rubber Futures
– SGX SICOM TSR20 Futures
– TOCOM RSS3 Rubber Futures
To request a Phillip Nova demo, please click here. Use MyInfo to open a Rubber Futures trading account online in minutes, click here.
Should you have any other Rubber trading related query, you may contact the Client Service Team at futures@phillip.com.sg / (65) 6538 0500.